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‘Gradually then suddenly’: Is AI job displacement following this pattern?
Many technological shifts have coincided with economic downturns. Will 2025 be the year AI not only augments jobs but starts to replace them?
For example, Goldman Sachs said in a research report two years ago that “generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation leading to “significant disruption” in the labor market. If a recession materializes in 2025 or 2026, companies facing pressure to reduce headcount may well turn to AI technologies, particularly tools and processes based on LLMs, as a strategy to support efficiency and productivity with fewer people. The extent of AI’s impact will depend on several factors, including the pace of technological sophistication and integration, the effectiveness of workforce retraining programs and the adaptability of businesses and employees to an evolving landscape.
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