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A recent chess controversy
Statistical analysis suggests both an answer and a note of caution about data framing.
A prominent recent controversy erupted in November 2023, when Kramnik insinuated on his chess.com blog and in a YouTube video that Hikaru Nakamura cheated. The statistical elements of the criticism drew the attention of researchers including Shiva Maharaj of the chess school CHESS-ED, Chicago Booth’s Nicholas Polson, and George Mason University’s Vadim Sokolov. After calculating that there was a less than 3 percent chance of Nakamura’s demonstrated winning streak given his opponents’ ratings, the researchers used Bayesian analysis to reexamine the likelihood of it having occurred without cheating.
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