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A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet
Despite 2023’s record temperatures, there is no significant warming surge beyond the 1970s, and an increase of at least 55% across all datasets is required for a detectable warming surge at the present time, according to an analysis of four global mean temperature records from 1850–2023 using changepoint models and statistical techniques.
In this and other short-memory models, the ocean and other slow climate component systems respond to random atmospheric forcing slowly, producing variability at time scales longer than that of white noise 10. To illustrate how a change in assumptions can yield false detections, we also fitted a discontinuous model that does not take into account autocorrelation (assuming independent errors) on the HadCRUT dataset (see Fig. Accounting for the short-term variability in the HadCRUT GMST over 1970–2023 and the added uncertainty for the changepoint location, the second segment (2013–2023) would need a slope of at least 0.039 ∘ C/year (more than a 100% increase) to be statistically different than 0.019 at the α= 0.05 significance level right now.
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