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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu


The economy will literally double every year afterwards

Tamay Besiroglu 00:09:46 I mean, I guess you could have made similar points five years ago and say “you look at AlphaZero and there’s this mini AGI there, and if only you unhobbled it by training it on text and giving it all your context” and so on, that just wouldn’t really have worked. Insofar as that’s posing a risk, or creating inefficiencies, because it’s unable to benefit from coordinating and trading, then it should have this enormous incentive to address that.Insofar as there is a lot of value to be gained from dominating and taking over humans, what you might get is a more negotiated settlement. You need just more assumptions in order to make this a coherent objection.And so I think a thing that’s a little bit confusing is just that there are these qualitative objections that I agree with, like bottlenecks are indeed important, which is part of the reason I’m more skeptical of this ‘software singularity’ story.

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