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An Uncertain Future Requires Uncertain Prediction Skills
Forecasting is both art and science, reliant on both rigor and luck—but you can develop a mindset that anticipates and plans ahead.
This was reported as a “fair” chance, which they thought would be interpreted as “not too good.” But President Kennedy read the word optimistically and approved the invasion, which was an utter fiasco and pushed Cuba even further into Soviet influence. They typically have an openness to new knowledge and are happy to work in teams, have an insight into their own thinking and all their biases, and have the humility to acknowledge uncertainty, admit errors, and change their minds. Uncertainty is unavoidable, and we may react to that awareness of ignorance in a variety of ways—we may feel anxious or excited, hopeful or fearful, depending on the circumstances and our personal tolerance of not-knowing.
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