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Analyzing a Critique of the AI 2027 Timeline Forecasts

There was what everyone agrees was a high quality critique of the timelines component of AI 2027, by the LessWrong user and Substack writer Titotal.

The point they were trying to convey was these models that are treated as high status and prestigious should not be and I disagree that non-violent communication could have achieved a similar effect to that title (note, I don't particularly like how they framed the post, but I think this was perfectly reasonable from their perspective.) Also (I discovered this after I’d finished analyzing the post) it turns out this person’s substack (called Timeline Topography Tales) is focused on, well, I’ll let Titotal explain, by sharing the most recent headlines and the relevant taglines in order, that appear before you click ‘see all’: I don’t think 3b here is a great explanation, as I initially misunderstood it, but Eli has clarified that its intent matches my earlier statements about ease of shifting to longer tasks being clearly easier at some point past the ‘learn the basic components’ stage.

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