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Bayesian Epistemology (2022)
We can think of belief as an all-or-nothing affair. For example, I believe that I am alive, and I don’t believe that I am a historian of the Mongol Empire.
Objective Bayesians contend that, in addition to coherence, there is another epistemic virtue or ideal that needs to be codified into a norm for prior credences: freedom from bias and avoidance of overly strong opinions (Jeffreys 1939; Carnap 1945; Jaynes 1957, 1968; Rosenkrantz 1981; J. Williamson 2010). [ Garber 1983 available online] Gelman, Andrew, John B. Carlin, Hal Steven Stern, David B. Dunson, Aki Vehtari, and Donald B. Rubin, 2014, Bayesian Data Analysis, third edition, (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science), Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. I also thank William Talbott, Stephan Hartmann, Jon Williamson, Chloé de Canson, Maomei Wang, Ted Shear, Jeremy Strasser, Kramer Thompson, Joshua Thong, James Willoughby, Rachel Boddy, and Tyrus Fisher for their comments and suggestions.
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