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Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market

500 years before Polymarket, the Vatican fought to stop gambling on papal affairs. Should we worry that it’s back?​​​​​​​​​​​​

Gregory XIII was very sick throughout that year, and many clergy and papal officials — even Philip II of Spain — worried he might die in Bologna and what repercussions that event could have for the city of Rome.” As Pope Francis’ health and succession become a bigger topic, we will likely see anonymous speculators, public figures, and even political leaders offer a running commentary on the conclave and their preferred outcome. Much like foreign kings used to park armies near Rome to sway papal elections, culture warriors on both sides will try to create public pressure — and make some money doing it.

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