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British AI startup beats humans in international forecasting competition | ManticAI ranked eighth in the Metaculus Cup, leaving some believing bots’ prediction skills could soon overtake experts


ManticAI ranked eighth in the Metaculus Cup, leaving some believing bots’ prediction skills could soon overtake experts

An artificial intelligence system has beaten scores of forecasting enthusiasts, including several professionals, in a contest to predict events ranging from bust-ups between Donald Trump and Elon Musk to Kemi Badenoch being removed from the Conservative party leadership. Turan said that on complex forecasts, which rely on predicting interrelated events, AI systems can still struggle to spot logical inconsistencies in their outputs and to carry out verification checks. Warren Hatch, the chief executive of Good Judgment, a forecasting company co-founded by Tetlock, said: “We expect AI will excel in certain categories of questions, like monthly inflation rates.

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