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Crystal Ball Trading Game

Elm: making sense of your wealth. Take the guesswork out of wealth management with our sensible-yet-sophisticated approach to investing.

As former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein reminded us in a widely-circulated tweet, sometimes the markets don’t react to the news as even seasoned experts expect – an important lesson all successful traders learn, eventually. We suspect most readers will agree with us in rating this performance “not very impressive.” It seems that getting the front page of not-any-old-newspaper, but the WSJ, 36 hours ahead of time (albeit with market moves redacted) may not be as valuable as many of us might have imagined. As a further test of our hypothesis that this Crystal Ball would bear fruit for players with more experience in connecting news to markets and in sensible trade-sizing, we had five senior bank and hedge fund traders play this game.

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