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East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to global warming
Restrictions of atmospheric aerosol and precursor emissions in East Asia have contributed to the observed global surface warming acceleration since 2010, according to Earth System Model simulations isolating regional changes.
Here we show, using a large set of simulations from eight Earth System Models, how a time-evolving 75% reduction in East Asian sulfate emissions partially unmasks greenhouse gas-driven warming and influences the spatial pattern of surface temperature change. Thus, we can use the RAMIP simulations for this period to quantify the real-world climate impacts of recent efforts by China to improve air quality, including surface temperatures, precipitation, and the global energy imbalance. This means that for the coming years and decades, the influence on global warming rates from East Asian emissions reductions is likely to be less prominent, although this depends crucially on the still unresolved question of the linearity of aerosol-climate responses, in particular through aerosol–cloud interactions.
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