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Escaping the odds and a formula for life (2024)
Odds and a Formula for Life Abstract We all make bets in life—on our careers, relationships, and decisions. This is a personal story that might change how you approach your own bets, too.
Over coffee before our session, my friend Chris shares his latest side project: an AI/ML model to predict (American) football games. This is the key equation: it represents the expected logarithmic growth of wealth, and our goal is to find the value of (the fraction of the bankroll to bet) that maximizes this expression. It naturally complements ideas like , which explains why Nassim Taleb wrote the foreword to Edward Thorp’s memoir A Man for All Markets.
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