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Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration
New data supports an exponential AI curve, but lots of uncertainty remains
Humans are likely hired in part because of their ability to master very niche tasks by accumulating learning over time – current AI models do not experience these training effects. Consider o3 spending 13 minutes using a wide variety of advanced image processing tools to analyze this simple doodle trying to match arrows to stick figures and still failing – a task that a six-year-old child could do in a matter of seconds: The gap between performing well on clean, well-defined software tasks versus navigating the messy uncertainty of real-world problems remains significant.
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