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GPT-4 LLM simulates people well enough to replicate social science experiments
Demo: Predicting social science experimental results using LLMs Luke Hewitt*, Ashwini Ashokkumar*, Isaias Ghezae, Robb Willer This demo accompanies the paper Prediction of Social Science Experimental Results Using Large Language Models and can be used for predicting experimental treatment effects on U.S. adults.
However, the archive of experiments we used for testing did not include many significant heterogeneous treatment effects, making it difficult to rule out the possibility of biases in prediction. Studies are beginning to evaluate the strengths and limitations of using LLMs to simulate participants, including concerns about bias, risks of over-reliance, and misuse. Our goal with these guardrails is to support scientific research uses, while minimizing the possibility that the tool can be used for socially harmful purposes (such as optimizing misinformation).
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