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Hot take: GPT 4.5 is a nothing burger

Pure scaling in shambles

The ever-optimistic Ethan Mollick (who unlike me was given a sneak peek) was more restrained than usual, too, calling it odd and interesting and full of fine “vibes” without at all suggesting GPT 4.5 was transformational: Half a trillion dollars later, there is still no viable business model, profits are modest at best for everyone except Nvidia and some consulting forms, there’s still basically no moat, and still no GPT-5. Any reasonable person with a scientific mind would say, “scaling was a hypothesis, we invested roughly 2x the Apollo Project in inflation-adjusted dollars in it, and we still don’t have that much to show for it.”

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