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How Apple Watch estimates VO2Max within 1.2 ml/kg/min without a treadmill test
How Apple Watch estimates VO2Max to within 1.2 ml/kg/min using GPS and heart rate.
This article explains the science behind VO2 max, how the Apple Watch’s cardio fitness algorithm works (based on published details from 2021 and 2023 papers), and concrete data from the study used to validate its accuracy. Various methods have been proposed in the medical literature, and as we’ll see, Apple’s algorithm appears to be a more sophisticated version of those using neural networks combined with biophysical ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Rather than estimate these parameters directly, the researchers trained a neural network that predicts a person’s entire heart rate response to exercise given a latent vector z.
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