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How long before superintelligence? (1997)
A 1997 analysis of AI timelines, analyzing brain processing power, Moore’s Law, and software development. Predicted superintelligence before 2033.
The author’s opinion is that except possibly for a small number of special applications such as auditory stereo perception, the temporal properties of the neurons can easily be accommodated with a time resolution of the simulation on the order of 1 ms. It was argued that it can be solved through a bottom-up approach by using present equipment to supply the input and output channels, and by continuing to study the human brain in order to find out about what learning algorithm it uses and about the initial neuronal structure in new-born infants. Molecular nanotechnology, a technology that in its mature form could enable mind uploading (an extreme version of the bottom-up method, in which a detailed 3-dimensional map is constructed of a particular human brain and then emulated in a computer), has begun to pick up steam, receiving increasing funding and attention.
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