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Humans have caused 1.5 °C of long-term global warming according to new estimates
A new study published today in Nature Geoscience by Dr Andrew Jarvis at Lancaster University and Professor Piers Forster at the University of Leeds shows that humans may have already caused 1.5 °C of global warming when measured from a time genuinely before the industrial revolution and the start of large-scale carbon emissions.
The human-induced contribution to global warming is currently put at 1.31 °C, but with an uncertainty range of 1.10 to 1.60 °C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) preferred methods. “If you plot global temperatures against the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere, they both fall on a remarkably straight line, much straighter than current theory would predict,” said Dr Jarvis. “The climate is unimaginably complex, so perhaps it isn’t so surprising that such a direct method for accurately measuring the warming humans are responsible for has been overlooked,” Dr Jarvis added.
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