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I don't buy 538's new election model
It barely pays attention to the polls. And its results just don't make a lot of sense.
Joe Biden’s chance of winning another term is hard to forecast because (1) he might still drop out and (2) he’s probably not capable of running the sort of normal campaign the model implicitly assumes he can. It’s a little bit like thinking you’ve engineered a good car, but for some reason the first time you test drive it, it continuously drifts to the left-hand side of the road and won’t go faster than 45 miles per hour. Its thesis is basically this: Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else.
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