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I don't think AGI is right around the corner

Continual learning is a huge bottleneck

“Even if AI progress totally stalls (and you think that the models are really spiky, and they don't have general intelligence), it's so economically valuable, and sufficiently easy to collect data on all of these different white collar job tasks, such that to Sholto's point we should expect to see them automated within the next five years.” Even if we get more data, without progress in continual learning, I think we will be in a substantially similar position with white collar work - yes, technically AIs might be able to do a lot of subtasks somewhat satisfactorily, but their inability to build up context will make it impossible to have them operate as actual employees at your firm. AI can do taxes end-to-end for my small business as well as a competent general manager could in a week: including chasing down all the receipts on different websites, finding all the missing pieces, emailing back and forth with anyone we need to hassle for invoices, filling out the form, and sending it to the IRS: 2028

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