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LLMs have reached a point of diminishing returns
Science, sociology, and the likely financial collapse of the Generative AI bubble
A few days ago, the well-known venture capitalist Marc Andreesen started to spill the beans, saying on a podcast “we're increasing [graphics processing units] at the same rate, we're not getting the intelligent improvements at all out of it” – which is basically VC-ese for “deep learning is hitting a wall.” Just a few moments ago, Amir Efrati, editor of the industry trade journal The Information further confirmed that we have reached a period of diminishing returns, writing on X that “OpenAI's [upcoming] Orion model shows how GPT improvements are slowing down”. Media (with notable exceptions like Ezra Klein, who gave me a clear platform for skepticism in January 2023) has rarely listened, instead often glorifying the hype of people like Altman and Musk.
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