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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
AI’s biggest impact will come from broad labor automation—not R&D—driving economic growth through scale, not scientific breakthroughs.
In addition, even if we follow influential papers such as Bloom et al. (2020) in making an unsupported assumption that TFP growth is completely driven by R&D inputs, their parameter estimates imply an R&D spending elasticity of output that’s around 0.3, about equal to capital and only half of labor. We have labeled each task based on whether we generally think it can be performed using only abstract reasoning skills—which in this context, means it requires purely linguistic, logical, or mathematical abilities, including writing reports, coding, or proving theorems. To fully automate R&D, AI systems likely require the ability to autonomously operate computer GUIs, coordinate effectively with human teams, possess strong executive functioning skills to complete highly complex projects over long time horizons, and manipulate their physical environment to conduct experiments.
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