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Most Researchers Do Not Believe AGI Is Imminent. Why Do Policymakers Act Otherwise?
Tech Policy Press fellow Eryk Salvaggio says it is dangerous to the public interest for policymakers to center the pursuit of AGI in AI policy.
The majority of the experts polled by the AAAI would appear to agree: 77% prefer prioritizing the design of AI systems with an acceptable risk-benefit profile “over the direct pursuit of AGI.” A recent conversation between New York Times columnist Ezra Klein and Ben Buchanan, the former special adviser for artificial intelligence in the Biden White House, offers a case study of the difficulty of landing on a single, consistent definition of AGI. Claims that AI has been getting " 10x better every six to nine months" provide a vague assessment of model performance with no statistically relevant meaning — part of a broader trend of meaningless benchmarks that confuse observers and overstate achievements.
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