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Our Big Oops
Humanity has a huge problem, of which few are aware.
This seems most plausible regarding fertility, but also seems believable re increasing mental illness and drug addiction, legal over-complexity, over-regulation of commerce, over-spending on education and medicine, and many other problematic social trends. A straightforward projection of current trends into the coming centuries plausibly results in the world population and economy soon peaking and then declining, and innovation then grinding to a halt. On parameter changes, fragmenting the world into many small insular groups with deep cultural differences would help, but seems quite hard to enforce, and comes at a great cost to innovation.
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