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Peak Population Projections
Last week, I reported the surprising realization that official population projections from the United Nations adhere to a notion of future fertility that appears to be immediately at odds with present real trends. The recent rapid decline in population growth—even pre-COVID—suggests that a population peak prior to 2050 is not outlandish, provided that current drivers continue to apply.
On the downside of material inheritance-spending and in the wake of global accumulation of ills and ecological harm, I would not expect trends of the past century to happily carry on, oblivious to a changing world brimming with more people—and their increasingly destructive habits (including advanced medical care)—than it can tolerate. Major disruption to industrial agriculture (from climate change alone; aquifer exhaustion; fossil fuel scarcity) and global food distribution could bring about famine that makes my gentle reversal toward late 20th Century standards seem rather cute and naive. To be clear, I am hoping that current trends—reliant in part on valiant deliberate efforts at taming the explosion—continue and bring about an early peak, thus acting as a giant relief valve on our ecological impact, perhaps staving off the worst fates for humanity and the entire community of life (like a sixth mass extinction).
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