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Perplexing the Web, One Probability Puzzle at a Time

The mathematician Daniel Litt has driven social media users to distraction with a series of simple-seeming but counterintuitive probability puzzles.

In late January, Daniel Litt posed an innocent probability puzzle on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) — and set a corner of the Twitterverse on fire. His posts have prompted lively online discussions among research mathematicians, computer scientists and economists — as well as philosophers, financiers, sports analysts and anonymous fans. One thing I find revealing is that the urn problem is completely sensitive to the fact that the number of red balls is chosen according to what’s called a uniform distribution [that is, by picking out of a hat].

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