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Sample Size [in Baseball]


A baseball season is the amalgamation of a lot of little events. Each pitch fits into a plate appearance which fits into an inning which fits into a game which fits into a series which fits into a…

When dealing with pitches flying 90+ miles per hour and split second movements, a whole bunch of randomness gets thrown into the pot. For example, strikeout rate starts to communicate useful information in fewer than 100 PA while BABIP for a pitcher can take three years. The goal of these “stabilization” or “reliability” numbers is to prevent you from reacting to data that is still highly susceptible to random chance.

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