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Scribble-based forecasting and AI 2027
math or intuition?
Then I’ll build a new AI forecast using my personal favorite method of “plot the data and scribble a bunch of curves on top of it”. Some people predict a future where compute keeps getting cheaper pretty slowly and we run out of data and new algorithmic ideas and theoretical metrics stop translating to real-world performance and investment drops off and everything slows down. Other people predict a future where GPUs accelerate and we keep finding better algorithms and AI grows the economy so quickly that investment increases and everything spirals into a singularity.
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