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Survey says there’s a 50% chance AI beats humans at all tasks in 20 years
If science continues undisrupted, AI could work better than humans, automate occupations and even cause 'severe' human disempowerment.
Most notably, participants reported that if science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task could hit 10% in just three years (by 2027) and 50% by 2047. Researchers also polled respondents about how soon human-level performance might be feasible for “High-Level Machine Intelligence” (HLMI) (related to tasks) and “Full Automation of Labor” (FAOL) (for occupations). Participants also expressed “substantial” or “extreme” concern that AI could be used for dissemination of false information via deepfakes; for manipulation of large-scale public opinion trends; by dangerous groups to make powerful tools (such as viruses); and by authoritarian rulers to control their populations.
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