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The Blowout No One Sees Coming
Intro Pollsters are expected to be fortune tellers. We’re often asked, “what’s going to happen in the election?” Credible pollsters’ predictions are grounded in reliable data and an understanding of voting behavior, not wishful thinking or reinforcing currently held perceptions.
We’re often asked, “what’s going to happen in the election?” Credible pollsters’ predictions are grounded in reliable data and an understanding of voting behavior, not wishful thinking or reinforcing currently held perceptions. This trend is supported by research from political scientist Gary Jacobson, who found a 0.95 correlation between presidential and Senate vote shares in 2020, showing just how interconnected these races have become. These high correlations show that voting patterns in those years were overwhelmingly partisan, with voters choosing the same party for both races, making split-ticket outcomes increasingly rare.
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