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The future of foundation models is closed-source
if the centralizing forces of data and compute hold, open and closed-source AI cannot both dominate long-term
Companies that earned free marketing from open-source eventually succumbed to business physics: Red Hat hid CentOS behind a subscription service, ElasticSearch changed their licensing after accidentally seeding competition, and Databricks owns the IP that accelerates Apache Spark. The product quality gap between iOS and Android, or MacOS and consumer Linux, has stayed wide for a long time, because the best software creators are aligned with paying customers. Thanks to Divyahans Gupta, Axel Ericsson, Harry Elliott, Phil Clark, Cat Wu, Michael Solana, Joey Krug, Mohit Agarwal, Yash Patil, Koren Gilbai, Theodor Marcu, and Gustavs Zilgalvis for their thoughts and feedback on this article.
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