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The Illusion of Thinking: A Reality Check on AI Reasoning
The thoughts of Leonidas Tsementzis, a software consultant, technical advisor and investor living in London.
Apple’s new paper, The Illusion of Thinking, quietly released ahead of WWDC 2025, challenges many of the assumptions we’ve come to rely on in the LLM space. And what emerges is remarkably consistent: solid performance on simple and moderately complex tasks, followed by a sudden and total collapse once a threshold is crossed. It shows that current reasoning systems operate within a surprisingly narrow band of task complexity, and once they cross certain thresholds, failure is all but guaranteed.
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