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The Imminence of the Destruction of the Space Program
New calculations put the date much closer than we should be comfortable with
Clutter in space presents an imminent threat to human activity at or above the Kármán line, the altitude at which conventional aircraft can no longer fly—about 62 miles (100 kilometers) above the surface. He articulated it in detail in his 1991 paper, proffering the mathematical computations that illustrated a probable timeline for the complete desecration of low earth orbit and, therefore, human space activity generally. Assuming the current launch rate going forward of around 1,500 satellites per year, the researchers estimate that the “critical population density” turning point will occur around 2050.
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