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The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia
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Suddenly, you now have an additional dial you can turn so that, as you increase the amount of COT reasoning tokens (which uses a lot more inference compute, both in terms of FLOPS and memory), the higher the probability is that you will give a correct response— code that runs the first time without errors, or a solution to a logic problem without an obviously wrong deductive step. So those are arguably the major components of Nvidia's "moat" and how it has been able to maintain such high margins for so long (there is also a "flywheel" aspect to things, where they aggressively invest their super-normal profits into tons of R&D, which in turn helps them improve their tech at a faster rate than the competition, so they are always in the lead in terms of raw performance). And there is some truth to that: if AI really is as transformational as I expect, if the real-world utility of this tech is measured in the trillions, if inference-time compute is the new scaling law of the land, if we are going to have armies of humanoid robots running around doing massive amounts of inference constantly, then maybe the growth curve is still so steep and extreme, and Nvidia has a big enough lead, that it will still work out.
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