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The momentum of the solar energy transition

Nijsse and colleagues find that due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies. Uncertainties arise, however, over grid stability in a renewables-dominated power system, the availability of sufficient finance in underdeveloped economies, the capacity of supply chains and political resistance from regions that lose employment.

The historical failure of the modelling community to anticipate the rapid progress of solar power could stem from an over-reliance outdated data, the lack of use of learning curves, and the imposition of maximum deployment levels and floor costs 16, 34. The self-limiting effect of solar PV diffusion due to intermittency can be overcome with a policy mix supporting wind power and other zero-carbon energy sources, as well as improved storage, grid connections and demand-response. These gamma values are calibrated to produce short-term projection of power capacity shares in each country that is consistent with the recent historical trend, by minimising the difference in rate of growth or decline at the changeover point between history and simulation.

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