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The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

Thanks to Jesse Richardson for discussion. Polymarket asks: will Jesus Christ return in 2025? In the three days since the market opened, traders have wagered over $100,000 on this question. The mar…

Polymarket has a lot of reputation to lose by incorrectly resolving this market, and would almost certainly override its consensus-based resolution mechanism if it came to that. As late as June, Polymarket had Democrats with a 6.5% chance of winning Kentucky (and this was typical of the safe states), even though the actual probability was more like 1%. My interests include math, computer science, linguistics, geography, philosophy, elections, and public policy.

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