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The Real Exponential Curve for LLMs
Do not count on LLMs getting smarter
In my humble opinion, these companies would not allocate a second of compute to lightweight models if they thought there was a straightforward way to achieve the next leap in reasoning capabilities. Despite being able to produce responses that appear fluent in Chinese, Searle doesn't understand the language; he's merely following syntactic rules without grasping their semantic meaning. No matter how fast Searle is, he won't be able to come up with a beautiful and original Chinese poem that has the creative spark special to humans.
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