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the US should place a value of $1.17M per additional birth
Existing fertility interventions are (probably) well worth it
Without a change in projected population trajectory (or AI timelines), humanity could have less than a century of current-level innovation left, forever. This is because, bar some sophisticated (and politically difficult) targeting, we’ll have to subsidise all births, including those that would’ve happened anyway. Even still, in the main case, the US government should seriously consider greatly increasing its child tax credits, and explore more creative and ambitious solutions to address this looming demographic crisis.
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