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This Is What Would Happen if China Invaded Taiwan


The new book ‘World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century’ lays out what might actually happen if China were to invade Taiwan in 2028.

Mainland-based precision-guided ballistic and cruise missiles, together with long-range, truck-mounted PHL-16 multiple rocket launchers and kamikaze drones, would all target stationary radars, fixed weapons platforms, critical command, control, communications nodes, naval facilities, energy infrastructure, and TV and radio transmission towers to sow chaos and impede the highly centralized decisionmaking of the Taiwanese military. Taiwan, meanwhile, had held a quadrennial presidential election in early January, resulting in the victory (and May inauguration) of a pro-independence, center-left candidate from the island’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)—a political shift and repudiation of the Kuomintang and the pan-Blue coalition that had sought to preserve closer ties between the Chinese mainland and the Republic of China. Throughout late summer 2028, even as the Olympics dominated the news coverage, media reports in The Washington Post and The New York Times had cited anonymous intelligence community sources pointing to significant troop buildups at PLAN’s East Sea Fleet port facilities of Ningbo, Xiamen, Xiangshan, and Zhoushan.

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