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Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement
The 12 months before July 2024 were more than 1.5 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline. Using climate models, the author shows that the first year that exceeds 1.5 °C of warming most probably also occurs within the first 20-year period with an average temperature that exceeds temperature targets.
However, one could view earlier than expected crossing of the Paris Agreement threshold relative to the timing of short-term exceedance in the models as an indication that missing drivers played a large role in the recent record-breaking warmth. To account for the role of internal variability in controlling the time between short- and long-term exceedance of 1.5 °C, the analysis conducted for CMIP6 is repeated while also considering the impact of concurrent strong positive El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions (12-month relative ONI 20>1.8 s.d.). The yellow arrow at 0 months indicates that taking strong El Niño conditions into account reduces the simulated probability (from the horizontal black to red dotted line) that short-term exceedance occurs after the long-term Paris Agreement threshold has already been reached.
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