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U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis


The risks of U.S. commercial banks being overexposed to commercial real estate (CRE) have intensified as the global pandemic upended long-held economic assumptions of perpetually subdued inflation, low interest rates, and in-office work. An analysis from The Conference Board suggests that in the next two years, more than $1 trillion in CRE loans will come due, and an increasing number of banks, mostly regional and community banks, risk having insufficient capital cushions. Executives should take steps now — including examining banking relationships, extending debt maturities, and securing adequate working capital — to mitigate the potential fallout.

Executives should take steps now — including examining banking relationships, extending debt maturities, and securing adequate working capital — to mitigate the potential fallout. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Sharpening Your Business Acumen. Learn More & See All Courses Dana M. Peterson is chief economist at The Conference Board and leader of the organization’s Economy, Strategy & Finance Center.

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