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What are the odds, II: the Venezuelan presidential election
In a previous blog post, I discussed how, from a Bayesian perspective, learning about some new information $latex {E}&fg=000000$ can update one’s perceived odds $latex {{\mathbb P}(H_1) /…
However, ingredient (iv) was nearly impossible to estimate: indeed, as argued in that post, there is no reason to suspect that is much larger than the tiny probability(2), and in fact it could well be smaller (since would likely be in the interest of corrupt lottery officials to not draw attention to their activities). This cannot be computed exactly without a precise probabilistic model of the voting electorate, but let us make a rough order of magnitude calculation as follows. : is true, and the election officials dutifully generate a report by multiplying these preferred percentages by the total number of voters, and rounding to the nearest integer, without any attempt to disguise their actions.
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