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What If A.I. Doesn't Get Better Than This?
GPT-5, a new release from OpenAI, is the latest product to suggest that progress on large language models has stalled.
Soon, ChatGPT would reach a hundred million users faster than any digital service in history; in March, 2023, OpenAI’s next release, GPT-4, vaulted so far up the scaling curve that it inspired a Microsoft research paper titled “Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence.” Over the following year, venture-capital spending on A.I. OpenAI’s announcement for GPT-5 included more than two dozen charts and graphs, on measures such as “Aider Polyglot Multi-language code editing” and “ERQA Multimodal spatial reasoning,” to quantify how much the model outperforms its predecessors. But in June Apple researchers released a paper titled “The Illusion of Thinking,” which found that state-of-the-art “large reasoning models” demonstrated “performance collapsing to zero” when the complexity of puzzles was extended beyond a modest threshold.
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