Get the latest tech news
What If There’s No AGI?
The technological struggles are in some ways beside the point. The financial bet on artificial general intelligence is so big that failure could cause a depression.
The ability to understand and respond in natural language; to turn a single prompt in plain English into an essay or animated video; and to learn from mistakes are all genuine achievements that will be a part of every AI system moving forward. Even consulting giant Gartner recently moved generative AI off its “Peak of Inflated Expectations” phase and views it on a downward slope toward a “Trough of Disillusionment,” often a time of decreased investment and interest. But if it’s true that the expected exponential gains from scaling pre-training are instead facing diminishing returns, if AGI is still a faraway dream and the industry’s technical leader (OpenAI) has no clear pathway to it, then the Valley has made a terrible bet.
Or read this on r/technology
