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Why everyone missed solar's exponential growth
The forecasters’ gap
Unlike short-term forecasting’s empirical focus, a long-term projection combines current data with a broader theory of change that seeks to understand how and why systems evolve. It’s similar in reasoning to the success of Moore’s Law – where a simple observation about transistor density doubling every two years proved remarkably predictive, because it was anchored in fundamental manufacturing improvements. Similarly, fitting a logistic curve to solar adoption typically works better than elaborate models because it captures the underlying drivers: manufacturing scale, technological learning and cost reduction.
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