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Why I don't discuss politics with friends

March 2025

I made a cheat sheet for friends and family in 2020 that I think has held up well, but I've been told Eliezer Yudkowsky's The Sequences is a more developed version and the canonical text in this realm. The third piece, aka "thinking in bets" [13], is technically part of a reasoning system -- but is so key to my differing world view against tribalism that I wanted to mention it directly. Some actions were taken, with some combination of intentions at the time -- even if we can't realistically discover them, acknowledging their existence, and pursuing them with probabilistic guesses, is much more honest than just throwing our hands up and saying "everyone is correct" or just picking the one we like best.

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